Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
